Emerging Technologies and Governance

Emerging Technologies and Governance

Higher Education, Domestic Industry, and Private Investment: Three Pillars of Technological Self Reliance in Iran's Energy Transition under Sanctions and Governance Constraints

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Articles

Authors
Javad Baharmast Hossein Abadi 1
Garineh Keshishyan Siraki 2
1 Department of International Relations, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Political Science and International Relations, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
10.47176/ETG.2026.1040
Abstract
This study analyzes global energy mix trends and proposes a governance oriented strategy for Iran's technological self reliance. Using linear regression on historical data (2000–2024), we quantify the decline in oil share (β₁ = –0.3179,p < 0.001) and the growth of wind and solar energy (β₁ = +0.1421 and +0.1221,respectively). To enhance methodological rigor, we compare linear projections to 2030 with logistic growth and ARIMA models, benchmark against IEA and IRENA scenarios, and provide 95% confidence intervals, all of which confirm robust directional trends. Iran's domestic energy profile reveals that fossil fuels supply 99.3% of primary energy, renewable capacity stands at 1,317 MW (far below the 5 GW target), R&D spending is 0.7% of GDP, and university-industry collaboration is minimal at 3.9%. Beyond these gaps, sanctions constrain access to finance and technology, while rentier dynamics drive private capital toward speculative assets.Mitigation instruments-sovereign guarantees and forex-indexed PPAs-are essential to de-risk investments. An illustrative 10 MW solar case study and correlative evidence from WIPO and Leiden proxies validate that synergistic coordination among education, industry, and private investment determines success.
Keywords
Energy Transition
Technological Self Reliance
Forecasting Methodology
Governance
Iran
Subjects

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License

Published by Imam Hossein University. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode  

 
 
 
Emerging Technologies and Governance

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 October 2026

  • Receive Date 16 July 2026
  • Revise Date 13 August 2026
  • Accept Date 17 October 2026